Published: 25 Feb at 4 PM Tags: Euro, Dollar, Pound Sterling, America, UK, Eurozone, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, France, Greece,
Pound Sterling (GBP)
The Pound has not been particularly strong today, as while it has made a few scattered advances against the usual peers, for the most part, it has trended in a tight range due to gathering ‘Brexit’ concerns.
The latest in the long line of UK Referendum developments has been the news that net migration into the UK has failed to fall below 300,000 since the end of 2014. The announcement has sparked yet another fierce debate on both sides of the argument, with the ‘Out’ campaign using it as justification for leaving the EU and the ‘In’ campaign asserting that action is being taken to reduce the figure below 100,000 by the 2020 election.
Tomorrow will bring little in the way of direct UK data, with the Gfk consumer confidence survey providing the only scheduled input. This is expected to show a drop from 4 points to 3.
During the European session the interbank Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was in the region of 1.2646
The Euro has steadily appreciated against a number of competitors today, against a backdrop of political tensions and hostility.
As part of an ongoing situation, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has recalled the nation’s Austrian ambassador over a row regarding EU border controls. In essence, Tsipras has demanded that fellow EU countries closer to Central Europe reopen their borders to facilitate the flow of refugees, in order to relive strain on Greece
as it struggles to accommodate countless individuals and families seeking passage further north into the bulk of the EU.
Eurozone data to watch out for tomorrow morning will consist of the French Q4 GDP and a spread of Eurozone confidence scores for February. Unfortunately for the single currency, current expectations have been negative across most of the board.
During the European session the interbank Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate was in the region of 0.7920
US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar has made middling movement overall today, with dovish speeches from Federal Reserve officials serving to hold the ‘Buck’ back against a number of its peers.
Both the earlier speech by James Bullard as well as a later delivery by Dennis Lockhart have both done little to inspire confidence of an interest rate hike happening during the March meeting. Bullard was categorically against such a move due to inflationary pressures, while Lockhart didn’t directly state his likely voting preference, but instead pointed out that raising the interest rate recklessly would put the nation’s many banks into a more difficult operational environment.
A third Fed speech is due in the near-future, this one coming from John Williams. Given the current 2-1 split, even a daringly hawkish speech may not be enough to trigger a USD rally, especially given that Williams is not a voting Fed member this year.
During the European session the interbank US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) exchange rate was in the region of 0.7186
Australian Dollar (AUD)
The Australian Dollar has largely lost its earlier appeal, having dipped from previous positive ranges into negatives against some of its peers.
One of the most recent detrimental developments to harm the appeal of the ‘Aussie’ has been the estimation from Variant Perception economist Jonathan Tepper that Australia
is currently in ‘one of the biggest housing bubbles in history’. Historic evidence shows the price of houses rising far above the fairly gradual income growth results, therefore Tepper’s fears can by no means considered unfounded.
More immediately, however, the next direct Australian economic data to anticipate will be Monday’s early Melbourne Institute Inflation report for February.
During the European session the interbank Australian Dollar to Pound Sterling (AUD/GBP) exchange rate was in the region of 0.5172
The ‘Kiwi’ has made mainly generally upwards movements against the competition today. A potential reason is the result of the net migration figure for January, which has broken records with a figure of 6130, up from 5570. Although some are concerned that this has limited potential wage growth, the influx of new contributors to the economy has apparently been the focus of investors today, given the positive ‘Kiwi’ movement.
Tonight will bring New Zealand’s trade balance result for January, which was pessimistically predicted to show a huge expansion of the deficit from -53m to -250m at the time of writing.
During the European session the interbank New Zealand Dollar to Pound Sterling (NZD/GBP) exchange rate was in the region of 0.4803
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar has essentially been bullish today, thanks to a surprisingly positive outlook for Canada
’s economy coming from the most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report.
While the OECD have cut their growth forecasts to 1.4%, the IMF has topped this with 1.7%, which while not exactly a world away is nonetheless a more positive way of interpreting current trends.
The last, low-impact Canadian economic release of the week is due out at some point tomorrow, and will be the Canadian Federation of Independent Business business barometer for February. The prior result came in at 54.3 points.
During the European session the interbank Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rate was in the region of 0.5286
As of Thursday, 25th February 2016, the Pound Sterling currency rates mentioned within this news item were as follows:
GBP EUR exchange rate was 1.2668, GBP USD exchange rate was 1.3964, GBP AUD exchange rate was 1.9298, GBP NZD exchange rate was 2.0694, and GBP CAD exchange rate was 1.8915.