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Continued Stock Market Turbulence Boosts US Dollar (USD), Commodity-Correlated Currencies (AUD, NZD) Trend Lower

Published: 9 Feb at 1 PM Tags: Euro, Dollar, Pound Sterling, America, UK, Eurozone, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, Germany, Greece,

GBP Struggles to Rally as Trade Deficit Narrows

Stronger-than-expected British retail sales and a narrowed visible trade deficit have helped to bolster Pound Sterling on Tuesday morning, suggesting that the domestic economy is somewhat escaping the influence of global slowdown pressures. However, as debate continues to rage over the UK’s future in the European Union this uptick may prove relatively short-lived, as the longer-term outlook of the Pound remains unclear.

Disappointing German Trade Data Pushes EUR Lower

Confidence in the Euro has taken a bit of a battering today in spite of continued market risk aversion. Traders were unimpressed with Germany’s December trade data, which showed the trade surplus of the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy slipping further than forecast from 20.5 billion to 18.8 billion Euros. With mounting worries over the Greek economy there has been little fresh incentive to buy into the single currency.

Safe-Haven Demand Bolsters USD

Although safe-haven demand has shored up the US Dollar at the start of the week some of that bullishness has been tarnished by the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which showed a greater decline in confidence than anticipated. With markets increasingly of the opinion that the Fed might have been too hasty in raising interest rates at the turn of the year the ‘Greenback’ has been trending lower against some rivals.

CAD Making Gains despite Oil Slump

Oil price volatility has weighed a little less on the Canadian Dollar on Tuesday, in spite of stalling hopes of a production cut deal pushing crude back down below $35. Largely this appears to be due to an unexpectedly positive Building Permits figure, which indicated that the domestic economy was improving in some respects regardless of commodity turbulence.

Stock Market Volatility Weighs on AUD

Following the Nikkei stock market plunging more than 5% the Australian Dollar has been slumped across the board, with base metals and the mining industry suffering from the latest loss in market confidence. While the NAB Business Confidence Index held steady in January this has failed to improve the appeal of the commodity-correlated currency, which seems set to push lower as general risk aversion builds.

NZD Trends Lower on Odds of RBNZ Easing

While New Zealand house prices showed a somewhat slower acceleration on the year in January the New Zealand Dollar has been on a downtrend against many of the majors. Speculation has also continued over the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) opting to cut interest rates at its next meeting, a prospect that is denting the strength of the ‘Kiwi’ further.
As of Tuesday, 9th February 2016, the Pound Sterling currency rates mentioned within this news item were as follows:

GBP EUR exchange rate was 1.2813, GBP USD exchange rate was 1.4464, GBP AUD exchange rate was 2.0473, GBP NZD exchange rate was 2.1769, and GBP CAD exchange rate was 2.0081.
Dominic Lee About Author: (474 Posts)With over ten years experience as an economist – including four years spent as a chief economist with a major currency broker – Dominic has acquired a wealth of knowledge which he uses to forecast market movements. Dominic now works as an independent business advisor and writes for several financial publications.

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